For years, 21st-century geopolitics has been framed as a heavyweight bout between Washington and Beijing. But what if the most consequential player isn’t in either corner?The world’s fastest-growing major economy — and its most populous nation — isn’t China.
It’s India.As other major powers age, India’s greatest export may simply be its people. So what could that mean for the global order?On the podcast “Interesting Times,” host Ross Douthat spoke with international relations scholar Amitav Acharya about demographics, growth and what Acharya calls a “multiplex” world — one shaped by several rising powers, not a single superpower.Here are five takeaways from the NYT conversation on why this could be India’s century:
Third pole
The “third pole” envisions India as an independent center of global power — distinct from both the United States and China.Instead of aligning fully with Washington or Beijing, India would act as its own gravitational force: a top-three economy, a strategic power in the Indian Ocean, a demographic heavyweight and a diplomatic swing state engaging both sides without formal alliances.In Acharya’s “multiplex world order,” power is distributed among several major actors — and India is one of them.
Faster growth than China
Acharya acknowledged that China industrialized and reduced poverty faster.
But he cautioned against a short-term lens.In the early post-independence decades, India played a significant role in Asian affairs while China was consolidating Communist rule. Though China later surged ahead, India’s recent growth rates have outpaced China’s — albeit from a lower base.India has also preserved its democratic system. The key challenge now is jobs. If India expands trade access — especially with Europe and the United States — it could combine growth with greater economic resilience.
Demographic advantage
While China faces a collapsing birthrate and rapid aging, India is entering a “demographic dividend” phase — a large working-age population with fewer elderly dependents.Unlike China, India never implemented a one-child policy, leaving it with a younger labor force.But demographics are not destiny. Without job creation, education reform and skill development, the dividend could become a liability. Integration into global supply chains — blending manufacturing with services and technology — will be critical.
Multi-alignment
India’s strategy has evolved from Cold War “non-alignment” to what Acharya calls “multi-alignment.”The goal: avoid overdependence on any single power. India maintains ties with the U.S., engages Russia and deepens trade with the European Union — all while preserving strategic autonomy.This balancing act works so long as major powers tolerate flexibility. It becomes harder if Washington demands countries choose sides.
The Indian diaspora
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has turned the Indian diaspora into a diplomatic asset, staging major events in U.S. cities to showcase global influence.Yet American understanding of India still lags behind its focus on China. Indian Americans have risen prominently in tech and politics, but their success — especially in Silicon Valley and through H-1B visas — has triggered backlash amid rising populism.Acharya argues the resentment reflects broader anti-immigrant currents rather than direct job displacement. Politically diverse, parts of the diaspora appear to be trending conservative — in some cases as a path toward assimilation in a polarized America.
