NEW DELHI: Operation Epic Fury began as a lightning strike but has now devolved into a grinding 22-day war of attrition. The US and Israel launched a decisive salvo, obliterating several rungs of Iran’s leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Waves of missiles pulverised key military sites, aiming for a swift “get-in, get-out” decapitation.Yet Iran endures. Its military command structure holds firm, with drone and missile barrages relentlessly hunting high-value US and Israeli targets. The initial blitz caught Tehran off-guard, but Iran’s resilience has stunned the Trump administration. What was projected as a quick knockout now spirals, with no end in sight.
Escalation engulfs the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, threatening global energy chokepoints. Somehow, President Donald Trump and his White House team miscalculated Iran’s defiance—underestimating its depth of resolve, redundant networks, and retaliatory arsenal.Tehran fights on, turning US hubris into a protracted quagmire. As strikes intensify, Washington scrambles for an off-ramp, exposing the perils of underestimating a cornered adversary.
1. The ‘quick strike’ illusion collapsed earlyThe operation was designed as a swift decapitation strike targeting Iran’s top leadership and military infrastructure. However, instead of collapsing, Iran absorbed the удар and reorganised quickly, turning the conflict into a prolonged war.2. Leadership decapitation did not break IranThe killing of Ayatollah Khamenei and other senior leaders was expected to create chaos within Iran’s system. Instead, succession was rapid, command chains held, and military operations continued with minimal disruption.3. Iran’s retaliation was broader and faster than expectedDaniel Benaim a US expert on the Arabian Peninsula, told ANI that the US failed to anticipate how quickly Iran would expand the conflict regionally.“And really, I think in some ways, our diplomats were caught by surprise by this surprise attack on Iran. And I think that we were caught by surprise by the fact that Iran’s opening move out of the gate was to broaden the conflict in all of these ways.” Missile strikes, drone attacks, and regional escalation followed almost immediately.4. Lack of preparedness exposed early gapsAccording to Benaim, the administration was not operationally ready for the fallout.“So, I think he did miscalculate in the sense that everybody knew that this was a possibility and they seem to not have been as well prepared for it as they might have been. In terms of having the assets nearby to reopen the Strait… That took several days.” Delays in securing shipping lanes and evacuating citizens underlined these gaps.5. Strait of Hormuz became Iran’s pressure pointTrump advisers initially downplayed risks to global oil supply.“Oil prices blipped up and then went back down,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said. (NYT)But Iran’s threats to target oil tankers disrupted shipping, spiked prices, and triggered global economic anxiety, exposing a critical miscalculation.6. No clear plan to secure global energy routesThe crisis revealed gaps in contingency planning. After a briefing, Senator Christopher Murphy said the administration had “NO PLAN” for the Strait of Hormuz and did “not know how to get it safely back open.” This highlighted the absence of a clear economic and military response strategy.7. Iran’s psychology was fundamentally misreadBenaim argued that Trump failed to understand that Iran would not capitulate under pressure.“I think that instinct really failed him (Trump) in this case in understanding Iran’s psychology and the fact that when pushed to a wall, they wouldn’t capitulate.” (ANI)Instead of backing down, Tehran treated the attack as an existential threat and escalated.8. Overconfidence within the administrationDespite warnings, several officials believed Iran would respond in a limited manner. Even the Pentagon later acknowledged uncertainty.“I can’t say that we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react, but we knew it was a possibility,” Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said. (NYT)This gap between expectation and reality proved costly.9. Mixed messaging and unclear war goalsTrump projected confidence, at times calling the operation “very complete, pretty much,” even as the conflict expanded.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State Marco Rubio outlined narrower objectives.“The goals of this mission are clear,” Rubio said. “It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles… and destroy their navy.”The divergence signalled a lack of strategic clarity.10. From decisive strike to prolonged quagmireWhat began as a high-impact, short-duration strike has evolved into a drawn-out conflict with mounting costs. Iran continues to target energy infrastructure and regional assets, while the US faces rising economic and military pressure.Iranian official Ali Larijani underscored Tehran’s stance.“Strait of Hormuz will either be a Strait of peace and prosperity for all… Or it will be a Strait of defeat and suffering for warmongers.” The bottom lineThe conflict has exposed how a series of miscalculations, strategic, psychological, and economic, transformed a planned quick victory into an open-ended confrontation.With oil markets unstable, military costs rising, and no clear endgame, Washington now faces the consequences of a war it expected to control but failed to fully anticipate.
