By: Anushka Verma | Updated: November 11, 2025
Introduction
As the curtains draw on the high-stakes Bihar Assembly Election 2025, political analysts and citizens alike await the results that could shape the state’s next five years. According to nine exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is projected to retain power in Bihar, securing approximately 147 out of 243 seats.
The Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Indian National Congress (INC)—is expected to fall short, with around 90 seats, while Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) might open its account with 1 seat.
These predictions indicate that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar may return to power once again, continuing his two-decade-long leadership, supported by the BJP. The final results, however, will be declared on November 14, as counting begins across all constituencies.
Bihar Election 2025 Exit Poll Summary (Compiled by Price News)
The following table summarizes the projections of nine major exit polls cited by The Indian Express and other national media outlets:
| Agency / Exit Poll | NDA (Seats) | MGB (Seats) | JSP (Seats) | Others (Seats) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DV Research | 137–152 | 83–98 | 2–4 | 1–8 |
| TIF Research | 145–163 | 76–95 | 0 | 3–6 |
| Chanakya Strategies | 130–138 | 100–108 | 0 | 3–5 |
| P-Marq | 142–162 | 80–98 | 1–4 | 0–3 |
| ABP News | 133–148 | 87–102 | 0 | 3–5 |
| JVC | 135–150 | 88–103 | 0–1 | 3–6 |
| People’s Insight | 68–72 (BJP), 55–60 (JDU) | 65–72 (RJD), 9–13 (INC), 11–14 (Left) | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Dainik Bhaskar | 145–160 | 73–91 | 0–3 | 5–7 |
| Matrize & People’s Pulse (Average) | 133–167 | 70–101 | 0–5 | 2–8 |
Average Projection (All 9 Polls):
- NDA: 147 seats
- MGB: 90 seats
- JSP: 1 seat
- Others: 5 seats
Political Landscape and Background
NDA’s Stronghold in Bihar
The NDA alliance, led by the BJP and JD(U), has maintained a consistent grip on Bihar’s political landscape since 2005. Despite frequent realignments, Nitish Kumar’s governance model—focused on infrastructure, education, and women’s welfare—continues to resonate with sections of the electorate.
The 2025 campaign leaned heavily on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s national appeal and Nitish Kumar’s promise of stability and governance continuity. The BJP’s focus on central schemes such as PM Awas Yojana, Jal Jeevan Mission, and Ujjwala 2.0 found particular traction in rural Bihar.
Mahagathbandhan’s Struggle
The RJD-Congress alliance, under Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership, ran a spirited campaign promising employment, education, and law-and-order reforms. However, fragmentation among opposition parties and limited voter consolidation appear to have cost the MGB crucial seats in several battleground constituencies.
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party: A Minor Player
Despite significant media attention and grassroots campaigning, Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) failed to make a strong impression. Most exit polls predict the JSP will win no more than 1–2 seats, signaling that the political strategist’s transition to active politics remains a work in progress.
Voter Turnout 2025: Record Participation
Bihar recorded a historic voter turnout of 67.14%, the highest ever in the state’s electoral history.
This reflects heightened political engagement and possibly a shift in voter sentiment in rural regions.
| District | Turnout (%) |
|---|---|
| Kishanganj | 76.26 |
| Katihar | 75.23 |
| Purnia | 73.79 |
| Supaul | 70.69 |
| Purvi Champaran | 69.31 |
| Paschim Champaran | 69.02 |
| Banka | 68.91 |
| Gaya | 67.50 |
| Araria | 67.79 |
| Madhubani | 61.79 |
The remarkable participation rate has prompted both alliances to claim a favorable outcome.
Comparing Past Elections: 2015 vs 2020 vs 2025
2015 Bihar Assembly Elections
| Party | Seats Won (2015) |
|---|---|
| RJD | 80 |
| JD(U) | 71 |
| BJP | 53 |
| INC | 27 |
| Others | 12 |
The 2015 election marked the RJD-JD(U) alliance’s triumph over the BJP-led NDA. However, the alliance fractured soon after, with Nitish Kumar returning to the NDA fold.
2020 Bihar Assembly Elections
| Party | Seats Won (2020) |
|---|---|
| RJD | 75 |
| BJP | 74 |
| JD(U) | 43 |
| INC | 19 |
| CPI(ML) | 12 |
| AIMIM | 5 |
In 2020, the RJD emerged as the single largest party, but the NDA collectively formed the government with a narrow majority of 125 seats. Nitish Kumar continued as Chief Minister, supported by the BJP.
2025 Exit Poll Comparison
| Year | NDA (Seats) | MGB (Seats) | Others (Seats) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 58 | 178 | 7 |
| 2020 | 125 | 110 | 8 |
| 2025 (Exit Poll Avg.) | 147 | 90 | 6 |
The exit polls indicate that the NDA’s seat share has grown steadily, suggesting that Nitish Kumar and the BJP have successfully consolidated their base.
Agency-Wise Insights
1. DV Research & TIF Research
Both agencies show NDA comfortably crossing the majority mark. DV Research places the NDA at 137–152 seats, while TIF Research estimates 145–163.
These figures suggest robust support for the ruling alliance, particularly in northern and central Bihar.
2. Chanakya Strategies
Chanakya’s projections (NDA: 130–138, MGB: 100–108) indicate a tighter contest, especially in constituencies around Patna, Gaya, and Bhagalpur, where urban and semi-urban voters play a decisive role.
3. P-Marq & ABP News
Both agencies see the NDA maintaining a strong lead, with projections exceeding 140 seats. P-Marq has also noted significant rural consolidation for the BJP and JD(U).
4. Dainik Bhaskar & JVC
Both media houses forecast a clear NDA sweep, with Dainik Bhaskar projecting up to 160 seats—a strong indication of a pro-incumbency mood across Bihar.
Regional Analysis
North Bihar
Dominated by the BJP-JD(U) alliance, North Bihar—comprising districts like Sitamarhi, Champaran, and Madhubani—shows overwhelming support for the NDA. Improved infrastructure and welfare schemes seem to have resonated strongly.
Magadh & Bhojpur Belt
A mixed picture emerges here. While RJD retains strongholds like Arwal and Jehanabad, BJP has made deep inroads into Gaya and Aurangabad.
Seemanchal Region
Despite a high Muslim population and RJD’s focus, the AIMIM and INC have not performed as expected, which may split the MGB’s vote share.
Public Sentiment and Social Media Buzz
Public opinion remains divided but leans towards political stability over experimentation. On social media platforms like X (Twitter) and Facebook, hashtags such as #NitishAgain and #BiharVerdict2025 trended throughout the day.
Younger voters expressed mixed reactions—many appreciating the NDA’s governance record but also calling for change and new leadership energy.
Experts’ Take
Political Analyst Priya Singh
“The NDA’s consistent messaging around stability and governance has worked. The opposition failed to create a strong counter-narrative beyond job promises.”
Senior Journalist Ramesh Kumar
“While exit polls are an indicator, Bihar’s electoral surprises cannot be discounted. The high voter turnout might conceal an undercurrent that polls missed.”
Economist Arvind Mishra
“Bihar’s development narrative is gradually shifting from survival to aspiration. That favors incumbents who project continuity.”
What Lies Ahead: Counting Day on November 14
As Bihar awaits its final results on November 14, political headquarters in Patna and Delhi are abuzz. Security arrangements are being intensified at all counting centers.
If exit polls hold true, Nitish Kumar could begin a record-setting eighth term as MLA and another as Chief Minister, solidifying his place among India’s longest-serving political leaders.
FAQs – Bihar Assembly Election 2025 Exit Polls
1. When will the Bihar Election 2025 results be declared?
The results will be announced on November 14, 2025, after the counting of votes begins in the morning.
2. Who is projected to win the Bihar elections 2025 as per exit polls?
Nine exit polls collectively project the NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies) to win around 147 seats, retaining power in Bihar.
3. How many seats are there in the Bihar Assembly?
The Bihar Legislative Assembly has 243 seats. A party or alliance needs 122 seats for a simple majority.
4. What is the projected seat count for the Mahagathbandhan (MGB)?
The MGB, led by the RJD and Congress, is projected to win around 90 seats.
5. How has Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party performed?
Most exit polls suggest the JSP may win 1 seat, or possibly none, in this election.
6. How accurate were exit polls in 2020?
In 2020, most exit polls underestimated the NDA, predicting an MGB edge. However, the NDA ultimately won 125 seats and formed the government.
7. What was the voter turnout this year?
The 2025 election saw a record turnout of 67.14%, the highest in Bihar’s history.
8. Who are the key leaders contesting this election?
Major candidates include Nitish Kumar (JD-U), Tejashwi Yadav (RJD), Sanjay Jaiswal (BJP), and Bijendra Prasad Yadav (JD-U), among others.
9. Why is the 2025 Bihar election significant?
This election is seen as a referendum on Nitish Kumar’s governance and a test for Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership of the younger opposition bloc.
10. What are the main issues voters focused on?
Key issues included employment, education, infrastructure, law and order, and corruption.
Conclusion
The Bihar Election 2025 exit polls suggest a continuation of the NDA’s dominance, reinforcing Bihar’s preference for stability and incremental governance over drastic change.
While the RJD-Congress alliance has fought valiantly, the fragmented opposition and limited voter consolidation may hinder its chances of dislodging the NDA.
As Bihar gears up for the final results on November 14, all eyes remain on the 243 Assembly seats, where the fate of the state’s political future will be decided.
Whether the exit polls hold true or another surprise awaits—Price News will bring you real-time updates, expert insights, and full results coverage from the ground.
