Introduction: Bitcoin’s Historic Milestone
Bitcoin has once again proved why it continues to dominate global financial discussions. On Indian charts, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has touched a historic level of ₹98 lakh per coin (around $118,000). This surge, which came after weeks of steady upward momentum, has reignited debates among traders, investors, and analysts worldwide.
Within just a week, Bitcoin climbed by nearly 10%, and within the last 24 hours, it jumped around 6%. At present, the asset is trading near ₹97.5–98.6 lakh ($117,000–118,000). For many, this is a clear sign of Bitcoin entering a new growth cycle. For others, it raises an important question: Is this rally sustainable, or is it just another temporary spike in Bitcoin’s volatile history?
To understand the dynamics behind this move, let us analyze its history, the forces currently driving it, and the potential risks that investors need to keep in mind.
The Journey of Bitcoin: From Pennies to ₹98 Lakh
Bitcoin’s rise to ₹98 lakh is not an overnight success. It is the result of more than 15 years of evolution, adoption, and global attention.
- 2009: Bitcoin was launched by the mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto. At that time, it was seen as an experiment in decentralized money.
- 2010: The first real-world Bitcoin transaction happened when two pizzas were bought for 10,000 BTC. At that time, Bitcoin was worth only a few cents.
- 2013: Bitcoin crossed $1,000 for the first time, shocking traditional financial institutions.
- 2017: Bitcoin touched $20,000, marking its first mainstream bull run.
- 2021: The COVID-19 pandemic and liquidity boom pushed Bitcoin to $69,000.
- 2025: Bitcoin has now broken past $118,000 globally, or ₹98 lakh in India.
Every cycle has shown the same pattern—rapid rise, correction, consolidation, and then stronger recovery. This pattern indicates that volatility is a permanent part of Bitcoin’s identity, but so is growth.
Current Price Snapshot
| Metric | Value (INR) | Value (USD) |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | ₹97.5 – 98.6 lakh | $117,000–118,000 |
| Weekly Gain | +10% | – |
| 24-Hour Gain | +5.9% | – |
| Market Capitalization | ~ $2.2 trillion | – |
| Derivatives Open Interest | – | $41 billion |
Why Has Bitcoin Surged to New Highs?
Several factors explain the latest rally:
1. Miner Activity and Profit Booking
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin miners have been transferring more coins to exchanges. This indicates that they are preparing to sell at these high levels. Historically, miner activity has often signaled short-term tops. However, the volumes are still not large enough to destabilize the market, meaning selling pressure remains manageable for now.
2. Derivatives Market Optimism
Derivatives activity has surged significantly. Open interest is up by almost 24%, reaching $41 billion. Funding rates are also positive at 0.012%, reflecting that traders are taking long positions with confidence. While this indicates strong optimism, it also creates the risk of a long squeeze—a scenario where if the price falls suddenly, leveraged traders are forced to sell, causing an even sharper drop.
3. ETF and Institutional Flows
Institutional adoption has been one of the strongest drivers of this rally. The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets has allowed pension funds, asset managers, and retail investors to buy Bitcoin easily. Billions of dollars have flowed into these ETFs, signaling growing mainstream trust.
Global Economic Factors
Bitcoin does not move in isolation. Global economic conditions play a key role in shaping its price trends:
- Inflation Hedge: With inflation still a concern in several countries, Bitcoin is increasingly seen as “digital gold.”
- U.S. Dollar Weakness: A softer dollar makes alternative assets more attractive.
- Geopolitical Risks: Economic slowdowns and political instability push investors towards decentralized assets like Bitcoin.
This combination of factors creates an environment where Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against uncertainty.
On-Chain Indicators in Detail
- Miner Reserves: Miners’ Bitcoin balances are falling, showing that some supply is moving into the market.
- Exchange Flows: Exchange inflows have increased, but not at panic levels. This shows controlled selling rather than panic selling.
- Long-Term Holders: A majority of long-term holders continue to hold their coins, showing confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.
Derivatives Market Deep Dive
The derivatives market is often where Bitcoin’s short-term direction is decided.
- Open Interest: At $41 billion, open interest is at multi-month highs. This shows increased participation.
- Funding Rates: Positive funding rates confirm strong bullish bets.
- Risk Factor: If prices fall even slightly, these over-leveraged long positions can trigger cascading liquidations.
Institutional Role & ETF Impact
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have completely changed the landscape. Earlier, only retail investors and a few hedge funds bought Bitcoin directly. Now, even traditional investors—retirement funds, insurance companies, and banks—can gain exposure through ETFs. This shift has created a stable base of demand that reduces volatility in the long run.
Retail Investor Sentiment
Retail investors remain excited about Bitcoin’s rise. Social media trends, trading app downloads, and global Google search data show a spike in interest. However, retail investors often enter near market tops, which can create short-term risks.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch
- Support Levels: $110K–$112K (₹96–97 lakh)
- Resistance Levels: $120K–$125K (₹1 crore+)
- Indicators: Moving averages remain bullish, and RSI suggests overbought conditions but not extreme.
The Bull Case for Bitcoin
- Institutional adoption is growing.
- ETFs are driving strong inflows.
- Inflation and geopolitical tensions continue to boost demand.
- Long-term holders remain confident.
The Bear Case for Bitcoin
- Miner selling pressure may increase.
- Derivatives market is overheated.
- Regulatory uncertainty could trigger corrections.
- Sharp corrections (15–20%) are common, even in bull runs.
Comparison with Past Bull Runs
Bitcoin’s previous bull runs (2013, 2017, 2021) all showed the same trend: rapid rise, correction, and then stabilization at higher levels. This rally looks similar, suggesting we may see a correction before higher growth resumes.
Long-Term Predictions
- 2025: ₹91 lakh – ₹1.14 crore
- 2030: ₹6 crore – ₹31 crore (optimistic estimates)
- 2050: Around ₹21 crore or higher, if adoption continues
Risks & Regulatory Concerns
- Governments may tighten rules around Bitcoin.
- Taxation policies may impact adoption.
- Over-leveraged traders can cause sudden crashes.
Investor Strategies
- Long-Term Holding (HODLing): Best for those who believe in Bitcoin’s future.
- Systematic Investment: Small regular investments reduce risk.
- Diversification: Don’t put all money in Bitcoin; use other assets too.
- Risk Management: Use stop-losses and avoid over-leverage.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s rise past ₹98 lakh is historic and exciting. It shows strong global demand, institutional adoption, and growing acceptance of cryptocurrency. However, risks remain, especially in the short term. Miners are selling more, derivatives markets are overheated, and corrections are likely.
For investors, the key is balance: stay informed, don’t get carried away by hype, and focus on long-term strategies rather than short-term emotions.
