Ukraine launched more cross-border attack drones than Russia in March, marking the first month since the war began in 2022 that Kyiv appears to have outpaced Moscow in long-range drone attacks, according to daily military data analysed by ABC News. The figures point to a possible shift in one of the most important fronts of the war: the battle of long-range strikes, where both sides are trying to damage infrastructure, weaken military capacity and raise the cost of continuing the conflict. Russia’s defense ministry said it shot down 7,347 Ukrainian drones during March, the highest monthly total it has ever reported and an average of 237 drones a day. The ministry only publishes figures for Ukrainian drones it says were intercepted. Ukraine’s air force, meanwhile, said the country came under attack from 6,462 Russian drones and 138 missiles during the month. According to Kyiv, 5,833 drones and 102 missiles were intercepted or suppressed — around 90% of drones and just under 74% of missiles. That means Ukraine faced a daily average of just over 208 drones and four missiles during March. Even so, the total number of Russian drones and missiles reported by Ukraine — 6,600 in all — set a new monthly record for Moscow’s long-range attacks, showing that Russia continues to sustain a heavy aerial assault even as Ukraine expands its own strike capabilities. But the significance of Ukraine’s growing drone campaign lies not only in the numbers, but in what it is targeting. Over the past year, Ukraine has placed special emphasis on striking Russian oil refining and transport infrastructure, aiming to disrupt a major source of revenue used to support Moscow’s military campaign. Among the most high-profile attacks in March were strikes on the Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, two key oil export hubs. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov denounced the strikes as “terrorist attacks.” Zelenskyy defended such operations in February, saying Russia’s energy sector is “a legitimate target” because oil revenues help finance attacks on Ukraine. “We do not have to choose whether we strike a military target or energy,” Zelenskyy said while addressing students at the National Aviation University in Kyiv. “He sells oil, takes the money, invests it in weapons. And with those weapons, he kills Ukrainians,” Zelenskyy said of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian officials have largely sought to play down the impact of Ukrainian attacks, often attributing damage and casualties to falling debris from intercepted drones rather than direct hits. When they do acknowledge damage, they frequently describe the strikes as “terrorist attacks.” Still, publicly available videos and photographs suggest that a significant number of Ukrainian drones are getting through Russian air defenses and hitting sensitive military and industrial sites. The attacks have continued despite the resumption of U.S.-brokered peace talks, with drones and missiles remaining a central tool for both Kyiv and Moscow as they seek to erode each other’s ability to fight and fund the war. At the same time, both sides’ official numbers should be treated with caution. Experts have suggested that Moscow and Kyiv may each have an interest in overstating the success of their air defenses or highlighting the scale of incoming attacks to support wider political and military messaging. The March data suggests that while Russia still launches more long-range weapons overall, Ukraine’s campaign is becoming broader and more sustained as domestic production ramps up. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly emphasized the importance of expanding Ukraine’s long-range strike arsenal. “Our production potential for drones and missiles alone will reach $35 billion next year,” Zelenskyy said in October. “Despite all the difficulties, Ukrainians are creating their national defense product that, in certain parameters, already surpasses many others in the world.” “Never before in history has Ukrainian defense been so long-range and so felt by Russia,” Zelenskyy added. “We must make the cost of war absolutely unacceptable for the aggressor — and we will.” Most Ukrainian attacks are believed to be carried out using relatively cheap, domestically produced drones. Ukraine is also increasingly using interceptor drones designed and built by Ukrainian companies to shoot down incoming Russian strike drones. Kyiv is now producing its own cruise missiles as well, including the Flamingo, which it says has a range of more than 1,800 miles. But drones still make up the overwhelming majority of projectiles cited in Russia’s daily reports. Ukraine’s air force publishes daily figures on Russian drone and missile attacks, including how many were intercepted and how many hit their targets. According to those figures, Russia carried out the single largest 24-hour strike by either side during the month, launching 948 drones and 34 missiles on March 24. The growing use of long-range drones has also increased concern that the war could spill beyond Russia and Ukraine. Drone incursions into neighboring countries have added to those fears, particularly near NATO territory. NATO aircraft are regularly scrambled in countries such as Poland and Romania in response to Russian drone attacks near Ukraine’s western borders.
