Is the fallout from Pakistan’s terror policy now reaching its fields and farms? With India keeping the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, a severe water shortage across Sindh and Balochistan is fuelling fears of an “economic massacre” in agricultural regions.Months after New Delhi put the decades-old treaty in abeyance following the Pakistan-sponsored Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan is grappling with a worsening water crisis that is now threatening agriculture, livelihoods and regional economies across parts of Sindh and Balochistan.The shortages have particularly affected Sindh, home to Karachi, Pakistan’s financial capital, where political leaders, farmers and water experts are increasingly raising alarm over dwindling supplies and uneven distribution.With Sindh and Balochistan facing severe water shortages, the crisis is affecting nearly one-third of Pakistan’s population.
India’s tough stance after Pahalgam
India’s response to the Pahalgam terror attack extended beyond military action under Operation Sindoor. One of New Delhi’s most significant diplomatic measures was placing the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance, signalling a “zero tolerance” approach towards Pakistan.Reinforcing that position, defence minister Rajnath Singh recently made it clear that India has no intention of softening its stance.“After the Pahalgam terror attack, by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, we said that those whose tears have dried up should not expect water from us. We will not let the waters of the Sindhu reach the patrons of terrorists and enemies of humanity,” he said.The remarks doubled down New Delhi’s position that terrorism and normal bilateral arrangements cannot coexist.
Sindh’s irrigation network under stress
According to Dawn, the crisis is becoming increasingly visible around the Sukkur Barrage, one of the largest and most important irrigation structures on the Indus river. The barrage supports millions of acres of farmland across Sindh and parts of Balochistan, making it critical to Pakistan’s agricultural economy.Water shortages across Sindh’s canal network have reached alarming levels. Sources cited by Dawn said the North West Canal is facing a deficit of 64.1 per cent, the Rice Canal 38 per cent and the Dadu Canal an alarming 82 per cent shortfall.The situation is being compounded by allegations of illegal withdrawals and unequal water distribution in upstream regions.Data from Sindh’s irrigation department reportedly shows that Punjab is drawing 53,394 cusecs of water against its allocated share of 44,000 cusecs, more than 21 per cent above its entitlement.Similarly, the Taunsa Barrage is said to be withdrawing 25,694 cusecs against its sanctioned allocation of 24,000 cusecs, amounting to an excess withdrawal of around 9.3 per cent.At the same time, water levels at the Chashma Barrage have continued to rise, indicating accumulation in upstream areas even as downstream regions face mounting shortages.
Political blame game intensifies
The worsening crisis has triggered sharp political exchanges within Pakistan.Jamaat-e-Islami chief Hafiz Naeem ur Rehman has accused the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)-led Sindh government of failing to address Karachi’s chronic water shortages despite years in power.The PPP, however, has directed its criticism towards federal authorities and water managers.PPP Sindh president Nisar Ahmed Khuhro has repeatedly warned that Sindh is being deprived of its rightful share of water despite being one of Pakistan’s most productive agricultural regions.He mentioned that Sindh produces around 5.5 million tonnes of rice annually and generates nearly $1.4 billion through rice exports.Warning of the economic consequences, Khuhro referred to the cuts in Sindh’s Kharif-season water allocation as an “economic massacre” of the province.“Sindh produces 67 per cent of the country’s agricultural output, yet it is being deprived of its rightful water share,” Khuhro said.
Farmers struggle as canals run dry
The crisis is already being felt on the ground.According to Dawn, severe shortages are affecting the Right Bank canals of the Sukkur Barrage system that irrigate Larkana, Qambar-Shahdadkot, Dadu, Shikarpur and parts of Balochistan.Ishaq Mugheri, former president of the Sindh Abadgar Board’s Qambar-Shahdadkot chapter, said the North Western Canal is facing a 64.1 per cent shortfall, the Rice Canal a 38 per cent deficit and the Dadu Canal an 82 per cent shortage.The figures illustrate the scale of the problem. The Dadu Canal, allocated 4,995 cusecs of water, is currently receiving only 860 cusecs. The North Western Canal is getting 2,100 cusecs against an allocation of 6,260 cusecs, while the Rice Canal is receiving 5,300 cusecs against its sanctioned share of 8,700 cusecs.Years of delayed infrastructure upgrades and incomplete remodelling of irrigation channels have further aggravated the situation, leaving farmers unable to begin seasonal cultivation.“We are still waiting for water to reach the tail-end to start preparing paddy nurseries,” Mugheri told Dawn.
A growing challenge for Pakistan
Pakistan’s dependence on the Indus river system has long made water security a strategic issue. As shortages intensify and political disputes over allocation grow sharper, the crisis is increasingly exposing vulnerabilities in the country’s irrigation management and agricultural infrastructure.With India maintaining its hard line on the Indus Waters Treaty and internal disputes over distribution continuing to mount, the water challenge confronting Pakistan appears set to become even more difficult in the months ahead.
